Monday, December 01, 2008

We May Have Reached The Bottom

I believe we may have reached the bottom, on the economic front. The fiscal stimulus by Govts all over the world has been succesfull in shoring up confidence in the economy.
Some economies has gone so far as lowering the interbank interest rate to ZERO, effectively. (If the Reserve Bank set the interest rate at, say 2.00 percent, and inflation rate for the country is also 2.00 percent, then that is zero effective rate)
We have seen that in Japan for a few years already. The Japanese Govt has been trying ro wake up their moribund economy. Now USA has Federal Rate at 2 something percent. Australia has lowered their interest rate to 5 something percent, and lower again in the next review. The same can be said of New Zealand. RBNZ is expected to cut the headline interest rate by 150 basis point, ie 1.5%.

Malaysia has cut interest rate to 3.25% a few days ago. A sure sign that deflation is utmost in their minds of the bank governors.

Yes when I see zero percent, and fiscal stimulus hand in hand, I am more confident in the economy.
True some sectors are experiencing bad times, like real estate and construction sector. But if you stick to essential consumer products for the time being, you would be safe. Everyone eat, and wear clothes, thats basic.

Let me highlight one stock that I have been watching.

AFFCO Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares (AFF)
Summary Charts Dividends News Announcements Price History Related Securities As at 6:15 pm, 28 Nov (20 min delay)
AFF 0.400 0 (+0.00%)
AFFCO Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
As at 6:15 pm, 28 Nov (20 min delay) Bid 0.430 Volume 0
Ask 0.490 Value ($NZ) 0
Last Price ($NZ) 0.400
Change 0 P/E 6.82
Prev Close 0.400 EPS 0.059

Open Total Div Paid (last 12 calendar mths) 0.000
High Next Div Pay Date
Low Div Yield 0.000
52-wk High 0.610
52-wk Low 0.320

Now the shares is selling around 40cents NZD. Giving Market Capitalization of around NZD200millions. Last years sales revenue was over NZD1billion. And profit of NZD60millions.
At that price of 40cents, its P/E ratio of 3+

Yeah, that cheap. furthermore the company product, lamb amd beef meat products are getting higher prices.

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